When internet traffic never sleeps

You never think about connectivity until you are staring at a spinner wheel that keeps on spinning. Luckily, that's rare thanks to the internet's design. The internet is designed not to break down. If parts of the internet don't work, internet traffic chooses a different route. But that doesn't mean that the internet doesn't have its moments when it is almost breaking down. The load can get so heavy that the continuously spinning wheel is around the corner, lurking behind the bush, warming up for appearance. These moments often happen when major events, like a large game update, network maintenance and a popular streaming event, overlap. At those moments, the internet is about to break.

But as mentioned, AI also contributes to increased internet traffic. According to Cloudflare's CEO Matthew Prince, "generative AI will fundamentally reshape internet traffic because AI agents will generate far more automated requests than humans, causing AI bot traffic to surpass human traffic by around 2027 and putting intense new pressure on web infrastructure". Humans need to sleep, eat, and rest, which naturally limits how long they can stay active. So, imagine agents online 24/7, constantly running tasks. If everyone ran one agent, internet traffic would double. Internet traffic would not dip at night. But people and businesses will run agents permanently, causing agent traffic to outrun human traffic and occupy the space reserved to absorb peak traffic. 

Whether true or not, it is a development to monitor. Broadcast traffic is also still increasing, and not only because viewers are switching to 4K and personalised broadcasting. Traditional studios still internally rely on specialised broadcast methods. These are end-of-life and are slowly being replaced by IP technology. On top of that, hardware prices skyrocket due to the enormous demand for data centres to support AI. As a result, building enough capacity for the theoretical peak is no longer economically viable for any participant in the ecosystem. With more traffic and slower capacity growth, it is time to see whether key players can manage internet peak traffic by exchanging information.

Traffic Radar, a working group that investigated information exchange, was formed some time ago. The initial focus was on the Dutch market to keep the scope limited and to test the idea. To get a clear view of when to expect peak traffic, parties within the ecosystem need to exchange information. That information can be sensitive, reveal competitive information, and trigger a false flag. Compare it with a tsunami warning. If an undersea earthquake happens, it might cause a tsunami, or not. However, failing to warn the public could result in casualties. So, better safe than sorry. The internet traffic ecosystem consists of three groups: 

• CPs (Content Providers) creating content that needs to be distributed
• CDNs (Content Delivery Networks) specialised in delivering content to the user
• ISPs (Internet Service Providers) that provide the network and connection to the client 

Four major Dutch ISPs, leading CDNs, and streamers met to discuss creating a Traffic Radar that could issue a Tsunami Warning when extraordinary peak traffic is expected. Main topics included how to exchange information without revealing sensitive competitive information, the mechanism for exchanging it, and designing the system so companies in the ecosystem support the Traffic Radar initiative. Traffic Radar is intended to optimise the use of all networks. If an ISP needs to do maintenance, the preferred option is to do it when traffic is lowest to limit the impact on clients and safeguard an excellent end‑user experience. The same applies when a new update or series is released; you want to prevent network congestion and unpredictable failures. Also, power‑use efficiency improves when you avoid peak traffic, not to mention the reduced need to invest in rarely used peak capacity. Basically, a Traffic Radar with a tsunami alert would be a big win-win for everyone in the ecosystem.

During the European Peering Forum in Paris, the working group will present its view on what data to exchange, the benefits of exchanging information, and the governance and business model for an organisation to run and develop the Traffic Radar. In addition to supporting the working group, AMS-IX and its governance model as an independent and neutral not-for-profit association serve as an example of the governance model. The Traffic Radar initiative is about to leave the drawing board and take its first steps into existence.